TÜRKÇE
ENGLISH
Information
| Code | ISB103 |
| Name | Introduction to Probability |
| Term | 2022-2023 Academic Year |
| Semester | 1. Semester |
| Duration (T+A) | 4-0 (T-A) (17 Week) |
| ECTS | 6 ECTS |
| National Credit | 4 National Credit |
| Teaching Language | Türkçe |
| Level | Lisans Dersi |
| Type | Normal |
| Mode of study | Yüz Yüze Öğretim |
| Catalog Information Coordinator | Prof. Dr. SELAHATTİN KAÇIRANLAR |
| Course Instructor |
Prof. Dr. SELAHATTİN KAÇIRANLAR
(A Group)
(Ins. in Charge)
|
Course Goal / Objective
This course aims to help students acquire a powerful background on probability, conditional probability, dependence, independence, random variables, distributions.
Course Content
Students will gain competence on sample space, events. Basic combinatorial probability, conditional probability. Bayes theorem, dependence, independence, random variables, distributions, Bernoilli, Binomial, Poisson distributions, Gamma, normal, exponential, chi-square distributions, expectation, marginal distributions
Course Precondition
no
Resources
Fikri Akdeniz (2013), Olasılık ve İstatistik, Nobel Kitabevi, Adana
Notes
DeGroot,MH and Schervish, MJ (2002), Probability and Statistics, Third edition, Addison Wesley
Course Learning Outcomes
| Order | Course Learning Outcomes |
|---|---|
| LO01 | Explains Sample spaces, Sample points and Counting Rules |
| LO02 | Solve the problems of permutations, combinations, and be able fragmentation unordered |
| LO03 | Uses probability of an event, the Rules of Probability Probability Axioms |
| LO04 | Applies conditional Probability, Independent events, Bayes Theorem |
| LO05 | Learn the concept of a random variable and distribution of a random variable |
| LO06 | Describe the expected value of a random variable, the variance and the properties |
| LO07 | Use moments, skewness and kurtosis in a range, the concepts of inequality Chebyshew |
| LO08 | Learn bernoulli, binomial, polynomial, geometric, negative binomial, some discrete distributions |
Relation with Program Learning Outcome
| Order | Type | Program Learning Outcomes | Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLO01 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Explain the essence fundamentals and concepts in the field of Probability, Statistics and Mathematics | 4 |
| PLO02 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Emphasize the importance of Statistics in life | |
| PLO03 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Define basic principles and concepts in the field of Law and Economics | |
| PLO04 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Produce numeric and statistical solutions in order to overcome the problems | 4 |
| PLO05 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Use proper methods and techniques to gather and/or to arrange the data | |
| PLO06 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Utilize computer systems and softwares | |
| PLO07 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Construct the model, solve and interpret the results by using mathematical and statistical tehniques for the problems that include random events | 3 |
| PLO08 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Apply the statistical analyze methods | 1 |
| PLO09 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Make statistical inference(estimation, hypothesis tests etc.) | |
| PLO10 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Generate solutions for the problems in other disciplines by using statistical techniques | 1 |
| PLO11 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Discover the visual, database and web programming techniques and posses the ability of writing programme | |
| PLO12 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Construct a model and analyze it by using statistical packages | |
| PLO13 | Beceriler - Bilişsel, Uygulamalı | Distinguish the difference between the statistical methods | |
| PLO14 | Beceriler - Bilişsel, Uygulamalı | Be aware of the interaction between the disciplines related to statistics | 2 |
| PLO15 | Yetkinlikler - Bağımsız Çalışabilme ve Sorumluluk Alabilme Yetkinliği | Make oral and visual presentation for the results of statistical methods | |
| PLO16 | Yetkinlikler - Bağımsız Çalışabilme ve Sorumluluk Alabilme Yetkinliği | Have capability on effective and productive work in a group and individually | |
| PLO17 | Yetkinlikler - Bağımsız Çalışabilme ve Sorumluluk Alabilme Yetkinliği | Professional development in accordance with their interests and abilities, as well as the scientific, cultural, artistic and social fields, constantly improve themselves by identifying training needs | |
| PLO18 | Yetkinlikler - Öğrenme Yetkinliği | Develop scientific and ethical values in the fields of statistics-and scientific data collection |
Week Plan
| Week | Topic | Preparation | Methods |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The concept of clusters, Sample space, sample point, event counting rules sample points | Source reading | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Alıştırma ve Uygulama |
| 2 | Permutations, circular permutations, combinations, Pascal convention, repeated combinations | Source reading | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Alıştırma ve Uygulama |
| 3 | All objects that are not different from each other permutations, ordered and unordered disruptions, Binomial Theorem | Source reading | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Alıştırma ve Uygulama |
| 4 | Introduction to Probability: the probability of an event and the probability axioms, some of the rules of probability | Source reading | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Alıştırma ve Uygulama |
| 5 | Introduction to Probability: the probability of an event and the probability axioms, some of the rules of probability | Source reading | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Alıştırma ve Uygulama |
| 6 | Independent events, Bayes theorem and its applications | Source reading | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Alıştırma ve Uygulama |
| 7 | Random variables, distribution of discrete random variables probability , Probability function and drawing , distribution function and drawing | Source reading | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Alıştırma ve Uygulama |
| 8 | Mid-Term Exam | Review the topics discussed in the lecture notes and sources | Ölçme Yöntemleri: Yazılı Sınav |
| 9 | The distribution of continuous random variables, probability density function and drawing, distribution function and drawing | Source reading | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Alıştırma ve Uygulama |
| 10 | Two-dimensional random variables, Joint probability function, Joint probability density function | Source reading | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Alıştırma ve Uygulama |
| 11 | The expected value of a random variable, the variance and their properties, Chebyshevs theorem | Source reading | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Alıştırma ve Uygulama |
| 12 | Bernoulli distribution, binomial distribution, a multinomial distribution | Source reading | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Alıştırma ve Uygulama |
| 13 | Geometric, negative binomial distribution, Hypergeometric distribution | Source reading | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Alıştırma ve Uygulama |
| 14 | Poisson distribution, uniform distribution, Comparison of Discrete Distributions | Source reading | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Alıştırma ve Uygulama, Problem Çözme |
| 15 | input continuous distributions and problem-solving | Source reading | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Alıştırma ve Uygulama, Problem Çözme |
| 16 | Term Exams | Review the topics discussed in the lecture notes and sources | Ölçme Yöntemleri: Yazılı Sınav |
| 17 | Term Exams | Review the topics discussed in the lecture notes and sources | Ölçme Yöntemleri: Yazılı Sınav |
Student Workload - ECTS
| Works | Number | Time (Hour) | Workload (Hour) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Course Related Works | |||
| Class Time (Exam weeks are excluded) | 14 | 4 | 56 |
| Out of Class Study (Preliminary Work, Practice) | 14 | 4 | 56 |
| Assesment Related Works | |||
| Homeworks, Projects, Others | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mid-term Exams (Written, Oral, etc.) | 1 | 12 | 12 |
| Final Exam | 1 | 28 | 28 |
| Total Workload (Hour) | 152 | ||
| Total Workload / 25 (h) | 6,08 | ||
| ECTS | 6 ECTS | ||