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Information
| Code | TS556 |
| Name | Extreme Value Analysis in Hydrology |
| Term | 2022-2023 Academic Year |
| Term | Spring |
| Duration (T+A) | 3-0 (T-A) (17 Week) |
| ECTS | 6 ECTS |
| National Credit | 3 National Credit |
| Teaching Language | Türkçe |
| Level | Yüksek Lisans Dersi |
| Type | Normal |
| Mode of study | Yüz Yüze Öğretim |
| Catalog Information Coordinator | Prof. Dr. MAHMUT ÇETİN |
| Course Instructor |
1 |
Course Goal / Objective
The primary objectives of this course are: a) To teach the basic properties of extreme values such as minimum and maximum temperatures in meteorology, droughts and floods in hydrology etc., b) to determine the likely probability distributions and to estimate parameters of extreme values, c) to apply them to hydrological and hydrometeorological variables.
Course Content
Basic concepts and definition of extreme values (EV). Factors affecting EV: natural factors and human activities. EV analysis techniques: a)Descriptive statistics and interpretations, problems encountered and solutions, b) Homogeneity, trend and periodicity issue, c) Frequency analysis: Normal, Log-Normal, Gamma, Pearson Type III, Log-Pearson Type III, Extreme Value Type I (Gumbel), Extreme Value Type III (Weibul) probability distribution functions (pdf) and parameter estimation; d) "Goodness of Fits" tests of pdf: Khi-square, Kolmogorov-Smirnov and probability line correlation coefficient tests; e) Estimation of EV at unsampled points or on sub-catchments based on at any given risk level. EV Applications to real data such as minimum and maximum temperatures, low flow rates, low or high floods etc.; synthetic data generation and interpretations.
Course Precondition
In order to enroll this course, it is sufficient to be a graduate or doctoral student. There are no other prerequisites.
Resources
1. Paul Meylan, Anne-Catherine Favre, Andre Musy, 2011. Predictive Hydrology: A Frequency Analysis Approach. SBN 9781578087471, Published March 16, 2012 by CRC Press, 224 Pages. 2. R.-D. Reiss, M. Thomas, 2007. Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values with Applications to Insurance, Finance, Hydrology and Other Fields. pp. 516, Third Edition. 3. Ramesh S.V., Teegavarapu, Jose D. Salas, Jery R. Stedinger, 2019. Statistical analysis of hydrologic variables : methods and applications. Prepared by the Task Committee on Statistical Applications in Hydrology of the Surface Water Hydrology Technical Committee of the Environmental and Water Resources Institute. ASCE-EWRI, ISBN 978-0-7844-1517-7 (print) ISBN 978-0-7844-8187-5 (PDF) 4. McMahon, Thomas A., Diaz Arenas, A., 1982. Methods of computation of low streamflow. Studies and reports in hydrology, ISBN: 92-3-102013-7, UNESCO. 5. Beran, M.A., Rodier, Jean A., 1985. Hydrological aspects of drought: a contribution to the International Hydrological Programme. ISBN:92-3-102288-1, pp. 149. UNESCO-WMO
Notes
Selected articles from national and international journals. Some internet web sites
Course Learning Outcomes
| Order | Course Learning Outcomes |
|---|---|
| LO01 | Learns the concept of extreme value and distinguishes extreme values from other hydrological and hydro-meteorological events. |
| LO02 | Interprets descriptive statistics of extreme value variables. |
| LO03 | Performs frequency analysis analysis on extreme values and interprets technically. |
| LO04 | Knows implementation procedures of goodness-of-fit tests and performs them accordingly to hydrologic and hydro-meteorologic data. |
| LO05 | Make estimations of misssing extreme values in sub-catchments, and derives sentetic series of extreme values. |
| LO06 | Knows the factors affecting extreme values. |
Relation with Program Learning Outcome
| Order | Type | Program Learning Outcomes | Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLO01 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Has the ability to develop and deepen the level of expertise degree qualifications based on the knowledge acquired in the field of agriculture and irrigation structures | |
| PLO02 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Has the ability to understand the interaction between irrigation and agricultural structures and related disciplines | |
| PLO03 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Qualified in devising projects in agricultural structures and irrigation systems. | |
| PLO04 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Conducts land applications,supervises them and assures of development | |
| PLO05 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Has the ability to support his specilist knowledge with qualitative and quantitative data. Can work in different disciplines. | 3 |
| PLO06 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Solves problems by establishing cause and effect relationship | 4 |
| PLO07 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Has the ability to apply theoretical and practical knowledge in the field of agricultural structures and irrigation department | 2 |
| PLO08 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Able to carry out a study independently on a subject. | 3 |
| PLO09 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Has the ability to design and apply analytical, modelling and experimental researches, to analyze and interpret complex issues occuring in these processes. | 5 |
| PLO10 | Beceriler - Bilişsel, Uygulamalı | Can access resources on his speciality, makes good use of them and updates his knowledge constantly. | |
| PLO11 | Yetkinlikler - Öğrenme Yetkinliği | Has the ability to use computer software in agricultural structures and irrigation; can use informatics and communications technology at an advanced level. | 5 |
Week Plan
| Week | Topic | Preparation | Methods |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Basic concepts and definition of extreme values (EV) hydrological and meteorological sciences | Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Proje Temelli Öğrenme |
| 2 | Factors affecting the occurrence of extreme values and visual diagnosis of components of extreme value series | Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma |
| 3 | Factors affecting EV: natural factors and human activities. | Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma |
| 4 | EV analysis techniques: a)Descriptive statistics and interpretations, problems encountered and solutions, | Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma |
| 5 | Homogeneity, trend and periodicity issue | Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma |
| 6 | Normal, Log-Normal, Gamma, Pearson Type III probability distribution functions (pdf) and parameter estimation; | Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma |
| 7 | Interpretation of frequency analysis: Log-Pearson Type III, Extreme Value Type I (Gumbel) probability distribution functions (pdf) and parameter estimation | Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma |
| 8 | Mid-Term Exam | Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals | Ölçme Yöntemleri: Yazılı Sınav |
| 9 | Extreme value frequency analysis: Extreme Value Type III (Weibul) probability distribution function (pdf) and parameter estimation | Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma |
| 10 | Goodness-of-fit tests for probability distribution (pdf) models: Khi-square test | Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma |
| 11 | Goodness of Fits tests of pdf: Kolmogorov-Smirnov and probability line correlation coefficient tests | Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Proje Temelli Öğrenme |
| 12 | Estimation of EV at unsampled points or on sub-catchments based on at any given risk level. | Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Proje Temelli Öğrenme |
| 13 | Application of extreme value distribution (GEV) to minimum and maximum temperature data and data derivation | Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Proje Temelli Öğrenme |
| 14 | EV Applications to real data such as low flow rates, low or high floods etc. | Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Proje Temelli Öğrenme |
| 15 | EV Applications to real data: Synthetic data generation and interpretations. | Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Proje Temelli Öğrenme |
| 16 | Term Exams | Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals | Ölçme Yöntemleri: Yazılı Sınav |
| 17 | Term Exams | Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals | Ölçme Yöntemleri: Yazılı Sınav |
Student Workload - ECTS
| Works | Number | Time (Hour) | Workload (Hour) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Course Related Works | |||
| Class Time (Exam weeks are excluded) | 14 | 3 | 42 |
| Out of Class Study (Preliminary Work, Practice) | 14 | 5 | 70 |
| Assesment Related Works | |||
| Homeworks, Projects, Others | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mid-term Exams (Written, Oral, etc.) | 1 | 15 | 15 |
| Final Exam | 1 | 30 | 30 |
| Total Workload (Hour) | 157 | ||
| Total Workload / 25 (h) | 6,28 | ||
| ECTS | 6 ECTS | ||