TS556 Extreme Value Analysis in Hydrology

6 ECTS - 3-0 Duration (T+A)- . Semester- 3 National Credit

Information

Code TS556
Name Extreme Value Analysis in Hydrology
Term 2022-2023 Academic Year
Semester . Semester
Duration (T+A) 3-0 (T-A) (17 Week)
ECTS 6 ECTS
National Credit 3 National Credit
Teaching Language Türkçe
Level Yüksek Lisans Dersi
Type Normal
Mode of study Yüz Yüze Öğretim
Catalog Information Coordinator Prof. Dr. MAHMUT ÇETİN


Course Goal / Objective

The primary objectives of this course are: a) To teach the basic properties of extreme values such as minimum and maximum temperatures in meteorology, droughts and floods in hydrology etc., b) to determine the likely probability distributions and to estimate parameters of extreme values, c) to apply them to hydrological and hydrometeorological variables.

Course Content

Basic concepts and definition of extreme values (EV). Factors affecting EV: natural factors and human activities. EV analysis techniques: a)Descriptive statistics and interpretations, problems encountered and solutions, b) Homogeneity, trend and periodicity issue, c) Frequency analysis: Normal, Log-Normal, Gamma, Pearson Type III, Log-Pearson Type III, Extreme Value Type I (Gumbel), Extreme Value Type III (Weibul) probability distribution functions (pdf) and parameter estimation; d) "Goodness of Fits" tests of pdf: Khi-square, Kolmogorov-Smirnov and probability line correlation coefficient tests; e) Estimation of EV at unsampled points or on sub-catchments based on at any given risk level. EV Applications to real data such as minimum and maximum temperatures, low flow rates, low or high floods etc.; synthetic data generation and interpretations.

Course Precondition

In order to enroll this course, it is sufficient to be a graduate or doctoral student. There are no other prerequisites.

Resources

1. Paul Meylan, Anne-Catherine Favre, Andre Musy, 2011. Predictive Hydrology: A Frequency Analysis Approach. SBN 9781578087471, Published March 16, 2012 by CRC Press, 224 Pages. 2. R.-D. Reiss, M. Thomas, 2007. Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values with Applications to Insurance, Finance, Hydrology and Other Fields. pp. 516, Third Edition. 3. Ramesh S.V., Teegavarapu, Jose D. Salas, Jery R. Stedinger, 2019. Statistical analysis of hydrologic variables : methods and applications. Prepared by the Task Committee on Statistical Applications in Hydrology of the Surface Water Hydrology Technical Committee of the Environmental and Water Resources Institute. ASCE-EWRI, ISBN 978-0-7844-1517-7 (print) ISBN 978-0-7844-8187-5 (PDF) 4. McMahon, Thomas A., Diaz Arenas, A., 1982. Methods of computation of low streamflow. Studies and reports in hydrology, ISBN: 92-3-102013-7, UNESCO. 5. Beran, M.A., Rodier, Jean A., 1985. Hydrological aspects of drought: a contribution to the International Hydrological Programme. ISBN:92-3-102288-1, pp. 149. UNESCO-WMO

Notes

Selected articles from national and international journals. Some internet web sites


Course Learning Outcomes

Order Course Learning Outcomes
LO01 Learns the concept of extreme value and distinguishes extreme values from other hydrological and hydro-meteorological events.
LO02 Interprets descriptive statistics of extreme value variables.
LO03 Performs frequency analysis analysis on extreme values and interprets technically.
LO04 Knows implementation procedures of goodness-of-fit tests and performs them accordingly to hydrologic and hydro-meteorologic data.
LO05 Make estimations of misssing extreme values in sub-catchments, and derives sentetic series of extreme values.
LO06 Knows the factors affecting extreme values.


Relation with Program Learning Outcome

Order Type Program Learning Outcomes Level
PLO01 Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal Has the ability to develop and deepen the level of expertise degree qualifications based on the knowledge acquired in the field of agriculture and irrigation structures
PLO02 Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal Has the ability to understand the interaction between irrigation and agricultural structures and related disciplines
PLO03 Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal Qualified in devising projects in agricultural structures and irrigation systems.
PLO04 Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal Conducts land applications,supervises them and assures of development
PLO05 Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal Has the ability to support his specilist knowledge with qualitative and quantitative data. Can work in different disciplines. 3
PLO06 Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal Solves problems by establishing cause and effect relationship 4
PLO07 Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal Has the ability to apply theoretical and practical knowledge in the field of agricultural structures and irrigation department 2
PLO08 Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal Able to carry out a study independently on a subject. 3
PLO09 Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal Has the ability to design and apply analytical, modelling and experimental researches, to analyze and interpret complex issues occuring in these processes. 5
PLO10 Beceriler - Bilişsel, Uygulamalı Can access resources on his speciality, makes good use of them and updates his knowledge constantly.
PLO11 Yetkinlikler - Öğrenme Yetkinliği Has the ability to use computer software in agricultural structures and irrigation; can use informatics and communications technology at an advanced level. 5


Week Plan

Week Topic Preparation Methods
1 Basic concepts and definition of extreme values (EV) hydrological and meteorological sciences Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals Öğretim Yöntemleri:
Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Proje Temelli Öğrenme
2 Factors affecting the occurrence of extreme values and visual diagnosis of components of extreme value series Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals Öğretim Yöntemleri:
Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma
3 Factors affecting EV: natural factors and human activities. Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals Öğretim Yöntemleri:
Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma
4 EV analysis techniques: a)Descriptive statistics and interpretations, problems encountered and solutions, Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals Öğretim Yöntemleri:
Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma
5 Homogeneity, trend and periodicity issue Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals Öğretim Yöntemleri:
Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma
6 Normal, Log-Normal, Gamma, Pearson Type III probability distribution functions (pdf) and parameter estimation; Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals Öğretim Yöntemleri:
Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma
7 Interpretation of frequency analysis: Log-Pearson Type III, Extreme Value Type I (Gumbel) probability distribution functions (pdf) and parameter estimation Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals Öğretim Yöntemleri:
Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma
8 Mid-Term Exam Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals Ölçme Yöntemleri:
Yazılı Sınav
9 Extreme value frequency analysis: Extreme Value Type III (Weibul) probability distribution function (pdf) and parameter estimation Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals Öğretim Yöntemleri:
Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma
10 Goodness-of-fit tests for probability distribution (pdf) models: Khi-square test Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals Öğretim Yöntemleri:
Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma
11 Goodness of Fits tests of pdf: Kolmogorov-Smirnov and probability line correlation coefficient tests Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals Öğretim Yöntemleri:
Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Proje Temelli Öğrenme
12 Estimation of EV at unsampled points or on sub-catchments based on at any given risk level. Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals Öğretim Yöntemleri:
Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Proje Temelli Öğrenme
13 Application of extreme value distribution (GEV) to minimum and maximum temperature data and data derivation Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals Öğretim Yöntemleri:
Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Proje Temelli Öğrenme
14 EV Applications to real data such as low flow rates, low or high floods etc. Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals Öğretim Yöntemleri:
Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Proje Temelli Öğrenme
15 EV Applications to real data: Synthetic data generation and interpretations. Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals Öğretim Yöntemleri:
Anlatım, Soru-Cevap, Tartışma, Proje Temelli Öğrenme
16 Term Exams Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals Ölçme Yöntemleri:
Yazılı Sınav
17 Term Exams Studying in detail the relevant chapters in different sources such as books, reports or scientific papers; reviewing and reading articles related to the subject from scientific journals Ölçme Yöntemleri:
Yazılı Sınav


Student Workload - ECTS

Works Number Time (Hour) Workload (Hour)
Course Related Works
Class Time (Exam weeks are excluded) 14 3 42
Out of Class Study (Preliminary Work, Practice) 14 5 70
Assesment Related Works
Homeworks, Projects, Others 0 0 0
Mid-term Exams (Written, Oral, etc.) 1 15 15
Final Exam 1 30 30
Total Workload (Hour) 157
Total Workload / 25 (h) 6,28
ECTS 6 ECTS

Update Time: 18.11.2022 06:34